The current atmospheric and oceanic indicators and atmospheric climate models are all signifying the 2015 NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone season will be an El Niño event. Due to the current high El Nino 3.4 conditions, the usual method of creating a seasonal forecast based on past years is not as effective as it requires a number of years with a pattern of similar conditions. As such, this interim report is issued with the full TC Season Outlook to follow in 1-2 months once conditions have become more stable and clear.
In an El Niño, the NW Pacific can expect to have an increase in the number of Tropical Cyclones overall. However, there would be expected to be a general shift eastwards to over the central Pacific, and most systems would have a longer duration and greater intensity than the climate average. The eastwards shift would result in fewer systems affecting the South China Sea and far west Pacific, but the ones that do move into the region will have greater intensity. We can also expect some systems to form closer to the equator, possibly affecting southern Philippines/Sulu Sea region.
Conditions are expected to stabilise by June-July so a full NW Pacific TC Season Outlook will be issued then.
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