At present negative sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies meeting the La Niña threshold persist in the NINO3.4 region. Dynamic models have these anomalies persisting for the next month values rising from December, with nearly all models moving anomalies back into the neutral range by February. These conditions are expected to result in a slightly above average number of Tropical Cyclones (TC) over the Australian Region, with about 10 expected and 3-4 becoming Severe Tropical Cyclones (STC). Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is expected to be slightly below the long-term average across the northwest region and below the long-term average over the northern and northeastern regions.
For the whole Australian region (0 – 30S and 105 ‐ 160E), the total number of TCs in the Australian region should be slightly above the long-term average (although more significantly above the average for recent years), approximately 10 in total (range 6-12). Some of these may affect more than one area, with about 6-7 coastal impacts expected. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy index (ACE) is below the long-term average although close to average for recent years.
For the Northwest Shelf and Timor Sea (0 ‐ 30S and 105 ‐ 125E), about 5 TCs (range 3-9) are expected which is slightly above average. Expected season will be from mid November to late April with 3 to 4 TCs may be expected to cross the coast.
Download full report: 2022/23 Australian TC Season Outlook