2024 Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook

The period from late 2023 to date (early May) has seen El Niño conditions (based on NINO3.4 detrended SST anomalies) decreasing into 2024 to be near the upper boundary of the neutralrange (‐0.8 to +0.8 degree threshold) in April. The expectation is that the NINO3.4 anomaly will continue to decrease over the coming months and remain negative through the coming NW Pacific TC Season.

The expected number of tropical cyclones (TC), tropical storm intensity or greater, over the NW Pacific region in the 2024 season is 20 which is below the long term (1969-2022) average of 24. The systems that form are expected to be of below average intensity with Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) forecast to be 85% of the long-term average.

About 7-8 tropical cyclones are expected to affect the South China Sea, which is a little below average. The systems that form are expected to be of below average intensity when compared to the long-term average (ACE about 80% of normal.

Click here for more details on the OWS 2024 Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook.

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