Tropical Cyclones (TC) over the Australian Region will be below the long-term average, with about 7 TCs expected and about 4 becoming Severe Tropical Cyclones (STC). Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is expected to be slightly below the long-term average across the northwest and northern regions and near the long-term average over the northeastern region. Between 1-7 coastal impacts are expected across all regions.
The sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the NINO3.4 region have been increasing in recent months and have been above the El Niño threshold since June. Dynamic models have these anomalies continuing to increase until around the end of the year. Values then decrease early next year but remain above the El Niño threshold at the end of March.
For the full 2023/24 Tropical Cyclones Season Outlook report, click HERE.