Author Archives: Mauricio Ferrando

Offshore Weather Services (OWS) Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook for 2018 indicates the expected number of tropical cyclones (TC) over the NW Pacific region is 24, which is close to the long term (1970‐2016) average. The tropical cyclones are expected to be of slightly above average intensity with Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 113% of normal.

The first 3 months of 2018 have seen negative conditions over the central Pacific, close to the La Nina threshold (‐0.8). The overwhelming majority of CGCM models show the NINO3.4 anomaly increasing during the next few months with the model average becoming positive around July. The average then continues to increase till December but remains below the El Niño threshold.

For more details of the 2018 Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook, please click the link below:

Based on the current atmospheric dynamics and the analogue years selected, the total number of tropical cyclones should be near or slightly above the climatological average across the NW Shelf -Timor Sea, Arafura Sea-West Gulf of Carpentaria and the Coral Sea regions with about 10 expected (Range 6 to 14) and 2-7 reaching Severe Tropical Cyclone strength. Six coastal impacts (range 2-12) are expected over the three regions.

The Tropical Cyclone Season should start late November 2017 and finish in late May 2018 with 40 TC days expected.

Offshore Weather Services Pty Ltd forecasts that the expected number of tropical cyclones over the NW Pacific region in the 2017 season is 26, which is slightly above the long term (1970-2015) average. These are expected to be of above average intensity with Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 130% of normal.

In the South China Sea, about 8 tropical cyclones are expected to affect the region, which is close to average. These systems also expected to be close to average intensity when compared to the long term average.

For more details of the 2017 Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook, please click the link below:

Neutral to weak La Nina conditions are expected to persist through the 2016/2017 Australian tropical cyclone season. These conditions should result in a near to slightly above average frequency of Tropical Cyclones over the Australian Region, with about 8- 12 expected and 1-7 becoming Severe Tropical Cyclones.

For more detailed outlook for the different regions in Australia i.e. Northwest Shelf and Timor Sea, Arafura Sea and West Gulf of Carpentaria, and the Coral Sea, please download the full report below.

The expected number of tropical cyclones over the NW Pacific region in the 2016 season is 17, which is below normal. These are expected to be of about normal intensity.

About 8 tropical cyclones are expected to affect the South China Sea, which is well below the climate average. These systems are, however, expected to be above average intensity compared to the climate average.

For more information, download the 2016 NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook.

The current atmospheric and oceanic indicators and global climate models indicate strong El Niño conditions are expected to continue over the NW Pacific for the remainder of the 2015 tropical cyclone season.

Based on the current atmospheric dynamics and the analogue years selected, the expected number of tropical cyclones over the NW Pacific region in the 2015 season is 23, which is close to normal. From the outlook of 23 TC formations, 17 have already occurred. The intensity are expected to be well above normal.

About 9 tropical cyclones are expected to affect the South China Sea, which is below climate average. These systems are expected to be slightly above average intensity compared to the climate average.

For more information, download the 2015 NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook.

The current atmospheric and oceanic indicators and atmospheric climate models are all signifying the 2015 NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone season will be an El Niño event.   Due to the current high El Nino 3.4 conditions, the usual method of creating a seasonal forecast based on past years is not as effective as it requires a number of years with a pattern of similar conditions.   As such, this interim report is issued with the full TC Season Outlook to follow in 1-2 months once conditions have become more stable and clear.

In an El Niño, the NW Pacific can expect to have an increase in the number of Tropical Cyclones overall. However, there would be expected to be a general shift eastwards to over the central Pacific, and most systems would have a longer duration and greater intensity than the climate average. The eastwards shift would result in fewer systems affecting the South China Sea and far west Pacific, but the ones that do move into the region will have greater intensity. We can also expect some systems to form closer to the equator, possibly affecting southern Philippines/Sulu Sea region.

Conditions are expected to stabilise by June-July so a full NW Pacific TC Season Outlook will be issued then.

Super Typhoon Haiyan (OWS32N13) with packing winds of 140kt is now crossing central Philippines. It is expected to cause high storm surges and massive damage over the region.

Super Tyhpoon Haiyan has already battered Palau Island and parts of the Micronesia yesterday and is now ripping through the Visayan islands in the Philippines.

Haiyan is expected to be west of northern Palawan early morning on the 9th and should cross the central South China Sea to make its third landfall over central Vietnam on the 10th.