Typhoon HAGIBIS remains on track to hit Japan. Although HAGIBIS has started to weaken today 11 October, the typhoon’s powerful winds are expected to cause widespread damage, high waves and storm surges along the coastal areas.

HAGIBIS is expected to make its landfall on Saturday 12 October near Tokyo, an area still recovering from the damages of Typhoon FAXAI a month ago. Typhoon FAXAI caused three casualties, injured dozens and left 930,000 people without power when it hit eastern Japan in September.

Hagibis rapidly intensified into a Super Typhoon on October 7 when the storm’s winds increased by 85kt (100mph/160kph) in 24 hours and is claimed to be the fastest rate of intensification ever observed on Earth.

JMA’s forecast chief, Yasushi Kajihara, said Hagibis resembled a typhoon that hit Tokyo in 1958 that flooded hundreds of thousands of homes and left 1,200 people dead.

Typhoon Hagibis (Himawari 8 VIS October 11, 2019 0000UTC )

Typhoon Hagibis (Himawari 8 IR October 11, 2019 0000UTC )
Typhoon Hagibis eyewall replacement microwave animation October 9-10, 2019
(Source: CIMSS)
Tropical Cyclone Marcus (March 2018)

Neutral conditions are expected through the 2019/2020 Australian tropical cyclone season. These conditions should result in about average number of tropical cyclones (TC) over the Australian Region, with about 9 expected and with 5 becoming severe tropical cyclones (STC).

For the whole Australian region, the TC season should start mid-December and finish in late April or early May. The total number of tropical cyclones in the Australian region should be about normal, approximately 9 in total (range 7-11). Some of these may affect more than one region, with about 5 coastal impacts expected. There will be more TC days this season (41) compared to the average 35 days.

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The NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite provided infrared data over two days (September 28-29, 2019) recording the changes in the storm’s eye, powerful thunderstorms and gravity waves it was creating. Hurricane Lorenzo briefly reached Category 5 strength, becoming the strongest hurricane on record in the eastern-most Atlantic Ocean.

NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP Satellite

Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership or Suomi NPP is a weather satellite operated by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It was launched in 2011 and continues to operate. It is previously known as the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System Preparatory Project (NPP) and NPP-Bridge. The satellite is named after Verner E. Suomi, a meteorologist at the University of Wisconsin–Madison

Hurricane Lorenzo S-NPP VIIRS 29 September 2019, 0515UTC

For more details please follow the link below:


The practice of co-locating solar panel (photovoltaic) infrastructure and agriculture by planting crops under the shade of solar panels is called agrivoltaics.

Greg Barron-Gafford, associate professor at the University of Arizona, shows that combining these two systems — solar panel (photovoltaic) infrastructure and agriculture — can create a mutually beneficial relationship. According to Barron-Gafford, “In an agrivoltaic system, the environment under the panels is much cooler in the summer and stays warmer in the winters. This not only lessens rates of evaporation of irrigation waters in the summer, but it also means that plants don’t get as stressed out. Crops that grow under lower drought stress require less water, and because they don’t wilt as easily midday due to heat, they are able to photosynthesize longer and grow more efficiently.”

The solar panels also benefit from the co-location. When it is very sunny, solar panels begin under-performing because they become too hot. The evaporation of water from the crops creates a cooling effect that reduces heat stress on the panels and therefore increase their performance.

For more details: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/07/190729123751.htm

The Bureau of Meteorology predicts a late rainfall onset is likely for much of northern Australia for 2019-2020

The BoM northern rainfall onset outlook gives an indication of whether the first significant rains after the dry season are likely to be earlier or later than normal. For the 2019-2020 season, there is below average chance of an early rainfall onset over most of northern Australia which includes the northern half of the Northern Territory, northern and eastern Queensland, and the far north of the Kimberley in WA.

Please refer to the BoM website for more information: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall-onset/

The 2019 Tropical Cyclone Season in the Northwest Pacific indicate 22 tropical cyclones in the region, which close to the long term (1970‐2016) average.

The consensus  of temperature trends over the Pacific Ocean since January 2019 and dynamic models indicate a weak or neutral El Nino persisting through the North West Pacific Ocean tropical cyclone season in 2019.  This is will lead to an average number of tropical cyclones impacting the NW Pacific region, but with above average intensities.  About 7 tropical cyclones (tropical storm intensity or greater) are likely to impact the South China Sea (a little below average).

For more details of the 2019 Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook, please click the link below:

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The story of the dog rescued from sea by an oil drilling team become viral. Not surprising, as it is one of the most incredible story I have witnessed whilst working offshore as an onsite Meteorologist. There are a lot of platforms around the area. The two big ones that are close to each other are the production platform and the living quarter platform. The dog truly has a strong survival instinct to choose the living quarter platform where workers use the lower decks to board crew boats that take them to the remote platforms.

It is still unknown on how the dog reached the platform. However, the action taken by the people that rescued the dog and brought it onshore is commendable. (by Aila Aguilar)

For more story:

Photo from Vitisak Payalaw Facebook
Photo from Vitisak Payalaw Facebook

A potential Tropical Cyclone brewing in the Arafura Sea poses another threat to the Pilbara coast after Severe Tropical Cyclone Veronica.

A weak low-pressure centre (Invest OWS60I19) over the Arafura Sea is expected to consolidate to a Tropical Low northeast of Darwin on the 3rd. It will then move WSW-SW to pass north of the Tiwi Islands, Nothern Territory late 4th while gradually deepening. Model guidance confidence is MODERATE that this Tropical Low will deepen to Tropical Cyclone intensity on the 5th-6th over the Timor Sea and move southwestward towards the Pilbara coast.

For more details on OWS TC Development Outlook, contact ows@offshoreweather.com.au

Percentage of ECMWF ensemble members with winds of more than 25kt
(Model run: 01 April 2019 1200 UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Veronica just off the Pilbara coast and Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria are expected to affect the northern coast coast of Australia.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Veronica over the NW Shelf has maximum winds of 90kt. It is expected to move SE and make landfall near Port Hedland at Category 4 intensity tomorrow morning. After landfall, STC VERONICA is expected to slow down and move erratically before moving W-WSW on the 25th along the Pilbara coast towards the NW Cape.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor is about to make landfall over the NT coast, SE of the Pellew Islands. Trevor has maximum winds of 100kt near the centre and expected to weaken slightly before landfall. It will then weaken steadily overland.

Both Severe Tropical Cyclones are set to bring destructive winds and heavy falls.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology latest ENSO Outlook, the current neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been raised to an El Niño ALERT. The chance of El Niño developing in 2019 has increased to approximately 70%, around triple the normal likelihood.

The latest WMO Climate Applications and Services El Niño/La Niña Update says, “the Sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific were at or slightly below El Niño thresholds in January and February 2019, after maintaining weak El Niño levels during the last quarter of 2018. However, very few atmospheric indicators responded to the warmer than average sea surface temperatures until late January and February, when some finally reached weak El Niño levels in the central Pacific. Around two thirds of the models from WMO Global Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts predict ocean temperatures to again reach weak El Niño levels during the second quarter of 2019. Given current conditions and model outlooks, the chance of an El Niño event to occur during March–May 2019 is estimated to be about 50–60%. The chance for a strong El Niño is low. The outlook for the second half of 2019 is currently uncertain. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will continue to closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months.”

In Australia, El Niño typically cause reduced rainfall, warmer temperatures and shift on the extremes, reduced tropical cyclones and delay on monsoon onset.

For more information on the BoM ENSO Wrap-Up: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/