The latest ENSO Wrap-up issued by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Australia on 14 February 2017 indicates that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral with virtually all indicators close to their average values.

Either neutral or El Niño are considered the most likely ENSO state for the southern winter and spring. Model outlooks indicate a neutral IOD is likely through late autumn and early winter.

Please refer to link for more details: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

 

Aila Aguilar, OWS Business Development Manager for Southeast Asia, attended the 21st International Oil & Gas Industry Exhibition & Conference (OSEA2016) held at the Marina Bay Sands, Singapore on 29 November – 02 December 2016.

OSEA has been established for over 40 years and has grown to support the industry’s needs particularly in the Southeast Asian region. With the challenging market conditions, this year’s event focused on solutions that can enhance production processes and improve cost efficiency.  Ideas have been presented with regard to the future direction for the industry.

Over 1,000 exhibitors from 48 countries/regions have participated showing the latest range of equipment, innovations and services for levelling up capabilities and productivity. Panel discussion was attended by country representatives from Norway, Netherlands, Singapore and Mr David Campbell, Minister (Commercial) & Senior Trade Investment Commissioner for Australia.

Neutral to weak La Nina conditions are expected to persist through the 2016/2017 Australian tropical cyclone season. These conditions should result in a near to slightly above average frequency of Tropical Cyclones over the Australian Region, with about 8- 12 expected and 1-7 becoming Severe Tropical Cyclones.

For more detailed outlook for the different regions in Australia i.e. Northwest Shelf and Timor Sea, Arafura Sea and West Gulf of Carpentaria, and the Coral Sea, please download the full report below.

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In line with Offshore Weather Services’ objective to be ahead in marine weather forecasting skills and technology, Dr Simon Caine, OWS IT and Numerical Modelling Specialist attended the WRF data assimilation tutorial in Boulder Colorado last August 1-3, 2016.

Simon attended a number of lectures and practical workshop sessions on data assimilation in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. He also visited the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Washington DC where he worked with NOAA specialists on applying the “genetic optimization package for the Generalized Multiple DIA” to the Wavewatch III model.

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131107142831-02-typhoon-1107-story-topThe expected number of tropical cyclones over the NW Pacific region in the 2016 season is 17, which is below normal. These are expected to be of about normal intensity.

About 8 tropical cyclones are expected to affect the South China Sea, which is well below the climate average. These systems are, however, expected to be above average intensity compared to the climate average.

For more information, download the 2016 NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook.

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131107142831-02-typhoon-1107-story-topThe current atmospheric and oceanic indicators and global climate models indicate strong El Niño conditions are expected to continue over the NW Pacific for the remainder of the 2015 tropical cyclone season.

Based on the current atmospheric dynamics and the analogue years selected, the expected number of tropical cyclones over the NW Pacific region in the 2015 season is 23, which is close to normal. From the outlook of 23 TC formations, 17 have already occurred. The intensity are expected to be well above normal.

About 9 tropical cyclones are expected to affect the South China Sea, which is below climate average. These systems are expected to be slightly above average intensity compared to the climate average.

For more information, download the 2015 NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook.

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On the 03rd July 2015 OWS became the first commercial weather forecasting company in the Australian / Asian region to directly receive and process the new Himarawi-8 weather satellite transmissions. The  JMA Himarawi-8 satellite will eventually replace the MtSat satellite that has been providing global satellite imagery for over a decade. The new H-8 satellite produces global images every 10 min in 16 frequency bands. This a great improvement on the 1 hour global images and 5 frequency channels produced by the MtSat  satellite and will mean even greater accuracy in weather analysis, squall and tropical cyclone forecasting from the OWS forecasting team.

 

Offshore Weather Services installed their new 2.2m antenna on the roof of their forecast office in Melbourne ready to receive the first official Himawari-8 satellite images when they become available in early July 2015. The Himarawi-8 antenna replaced the MTSat LRit antenna which was used by the Company as a standby / backup should anything fail on the primary MTSat HRit satellite earth station that OWS have enjoyed for over 11 years.

Himarawi 8 will become the primary weather satellite used by OWS for cloud analysis, squall and tropical cyclone detection and tracking. With global images available every 10 minutes, and utilising 14 frequency channels Himarawi-8 is a major advance is satellite imagery reception and will lead to more accurate weather forecasts provided by Offshore Weather Services.

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131107142831-02-typhoon-1107-story-topThe current atmospheric and oceanic indicators and atmospheric climate models are all signifying the 2015 NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone season will be an El Niño event.   Due to the current high El Nino 3.4 conditions, the usual method of creating a seasonal forecast based on past years is not as effective as it requires a number of years with a pattern of similar conditions.   As such, this interim report is issued with the full TC Season Outlook to follow in 1-2 months once conditions have become more stable and clear.

In an El Niño, the NW Pacific can expect to have an increase in the number of Tropical Cyclones overall. However, there would be expected to be a general shift eastwards to over the central Pacific, and most systems would have a longer duration and greater intensity than the climate average. The eastwards shift would result in fewer systems affecting the South China Sea and far west Pacific, but the ones that do move into the region will have greater intensity. We can also expect some systems to form closer to the equator, possibly affecting southern Philippines/Sulu Sea region.

Conditions are expected to stabilise by June-July so a full NW Pacific TC Season Outlook will be issued then.

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