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The current atmospheric and oceanic indicators and global climate models indicate strong El Niño conditions are expected to continue over the NW Pacific for the remainder of the 2015 tropical cyclone season.
Based on the current atmospheric dynamics and the analogue years selected, the expected number of tropical cyclones over the NW Pacific region in the 2015 season is 23, which is close to normal. From the outlook of 23 TC formations, 17 have already occurred. The intensity are expected to be well above normal.
About 9 tropical cyclones are expected to affect the South China Sea, which is below climate average. These systems are expected to be slightly above average intensity compared to the climate average.
For more information, download the 2015 NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook.
The download link will be sent to the email address provided below.