Dynamical models suggest a continuation of cooling in the NINO3.4 region for the next few months with conditions near or meeting La Niña thresholds expected from October to January or February 2021, before a warming and return to neutral conditions by March. These conditions should result in a near average number of Tropical Cyclones (TC) over the Australian Region, with about 8 expected and with 4 becoming Severe Tropical Cyclones (STC). Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is expected to near the climatological average across the Northwest region and below average over the remaining regions. About 5-6 coastal impacts are expected across all regions.

The Australian Region Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook is issued by Offshore Weather Services every year before the start of the Tropical Cyclone season. OWS performs independent analysis of all tropical cyclones (TC) in the Clients’ region of operation and issues tropical cyclone forecast tracks at 12-hourly, 6-hourly or 3-hourly intervals.

For more details on the 2020/21 ‐ Australian Region Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook, click on the Download link.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus (March 2018)

Neutral to weak El Nino conditions are expected through the 2018/2019 Australian tropical cyclone season. These conditions should result in a slightly below average of Tropical Cyclones (TC) over the Australian Region, with about 7 expected and with 4 becoming Severe Tropical Cyclones (STC). Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is expected to be near the climatological average across the three regions, with about 5-6 coastal impacts across all regions.

The TC season should start mid-November and finish in late April. TCs should be active for a slightly below average number of days during the season. The number of expected TC days is 29.

 

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