A potential Tropical Cyclone brewing in the Arafura Sea poses another threat to the Pilbara coast after Severe Tropical Cyclone Veronica.

A weak low-pressure centre (Invest OWS60I19) over the Arafura Sea is expected to consolidate to a Tropical Low northeast of Darwin on the 3rd. It will then move WSW-SW to pass north of the Tiwi Islands, Nothern Territory late 4th while gradually deepening. Model guidance confidence is MODERATE that this Tropical Low will deepen to Tropical Cyclone intensity on the 5th-6th over the Timor Sea and move southwestward towards the Pilbara coast.

For more details on OWS TC Development Outlook, contact ows@offshoreweather.com.au

Percentage of ECMWF ensemble members with winds of more than 25kt
(Model run: 01 April 2019 1200 UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Veronica just off the Pilbara coast and Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria are expected to affect the northern coast coast of Australia.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Veronica over the NW Shelf has maximum winds of 90kt. It is expected to move SE and make landfall near Port Hedland at Category 4 intensity tomorrow morning. After landfall, STC VERONICA is expected to slow down and move erratically before moving W-WSW on the 25th along the Pilbara coast towards the NW Cape.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor is about to make landfall over the NT coast, SE of the Pellew Islands. Trevor has maximum winds of 100kt near the centre and expected to weaken slightly before landfall. It will then weaken steadily overland.

Both Severe Tropical Cyclones are set to bring destructive winds and heavy falls.

Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd, Distinguished Professor at the University of Georgia in Athens and director of the university's atmospheric science program, said in this article:

"Weather Forecasting is often perceived as guesswork by the public. There is not a meteorologist alive who has avoided jokes about the accuracy of forecasts. But these are misperceptions. The current era of weather forecasts, as witnessed during the society-altering 2017 hurricane season, is quite extraordinary because of rapid advances in meteorological knowledge, satellites, radar systems, and computer models. We now have technology in place to provide significant lead time for landfalling hurricanes, potentially tornadic storms, and multi-day flood events."

Offshore Weather Services embraces the rapid advances in meteorological knowledge and uses the latest technology in its forecasting services.  OWS clients greatly benefit on the high accuracy of the forecasts and the extended lead time on tropical cyclone events.

Link: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/15-top-science-tech-leaders-offer-surprising-predictions-2018-ncna814196

Photo courtesy of NBC NEWS

 

335 tropical cyclones have been independently analysed and tracked by Offshore Weather Services Duty Forecasters over the Northwest Pacific, Eastern Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal and northern Australian oceanic waters since 2008.

Using established Dvorak satellite analysis techniques from imagery received directly at the OWS satellite earth station in Melbourne, Australia, and more recently microwave imagery, scatterometer and other imaging data, OWS provide independent analysis of tropical cyclone activity in the Asia Pacific region.

As OWS celebrates its 15th years of uninterrupted service to the oil and energy industry, we look back and celebrate how the company has grown. Continuous improvement in weather forecasting technology has resulted in enormous improvements in the accuracy of marine weather, aviation and tropical cyclone forecasts.

In a rare event in the western Atlantic, three hurricanes are in a row – Katia, Irma and Jose. The strongest among the three, Hurricane Irma has already crossed the Dominican Republic and left fatalities and massive damages in its wake. Irma remains a threat to Cuba, The Bahamas and southern Florida.

  • Hurricane Katia in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has maximum sustained winds of 80kt near the centre and is moving slowly WSW towards southern Mexico.
  • Hurricane Irma now west of Inagua Islands has maximum sustained winds of 135kt and is moving WNW skirting the northern coast of Cuba towards southern Florida.
  • The last in line, Hurricane Jose with maximum sustained winds of 110kt is moving WNW towards the northern islands of the Lesser Antilles.

Photos courtesy of the National Hurricane Centre.

The Parameterized Tropical Cyclone Wind / Wave Workshop held on 22 August 2014 at the AMDC Building, Swinburne University brought together meteorologists and oceanographers from academia, public and the private industry from Australia and overseas.  Organised by Dave Duncalf, OWS Manager for Research and Development and Alex Babanin,  Director Centre for Ocean Engineering, Science and Technology Swinburne, the workshop aimed to discuss developments in tropical cyclone, wind and wave modelling and extreme weather conditions associated with tropical cyclone events.

A tour of the of the Offshore Weather Services Forecasting Centre in Melbourne by some of the attendees was followed by a brief bus ride  to Swinburne University newly opened AMDC Building at their Hawthorn campus where the main talks and discussions were to take place. After introductory speeches by OWS Managing Director Peter Wellby, Alex Babanin and Swinburne University Deputy Vice-Chancellor George Collins, Professor Ian Young, Vice Chancellor Australian National University started the workshop  with his talk, “A Parametric Model for Tropical Cyclone Waves.”

Other speakers include, Simon Caine and Dave Duncalf (OWS), Noel Davidson, Jeff Keppert, Andrew Donaldson and Jason Brownlee (Bureau of Meteorology), Kevin Walsh (Melbourne University), Alex Babanin and Stefan Zieger (Swinburne University), Jessica Sweeney (RPS MetOcean) and Joanna Burston (Griffith University).

The workshop was well attended  and considered to be very informative and a good informal forum for the exchange of ideas on these two idifferent but interrelated  topics.  OWS would welcome the opportunity to make the forum a regular occurrence where the latest advances in meteorology and related studies are discussed.  OWS in its commitment to utilise the latest technology in it’s marine and aviation forecasting services will continue to support events such as these.OWSWS-14

OWSWS-8 OWSWS-6

Offshore Weather Services have recently conducted the PTTEP 2013 Tropical Cyclone Briefings and assisted in the Typhoon Exercise in preparation for the 2013 Tropical Cyclone Season in the Gulf of Thailand.

Offshore Weather Services senior forecasters Peter Wellby and Aila Aguilar took turns and went around the PTTEP assets in the Gulf of Thailand to conduct the Tropical Cyclone Briefings. The briefings covered the tropical cyclone risk in the region, TC forecast tracks and warnings issued during cyclone occurrences and the PTTEP TC Emergency Response Zones. A ‘Tropical Cyclone Exercise’ followed.

The Gulf of Thailand normally has one to two Tropical Cyclone threats each year, occurring mainly in the months of October to December. The region has been affected by 23 tropical cyclones for the past 21 years with 17 tracking across the gulf at varying intensities.

2013 PTTEP TC Briefing